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For example, even in a warming world, there’s still a one-in-three chance that any seven-year period would see no sea ice loss, such as in 2007-2013, the new analysis shows.

Additionally, a similar mechanism is shown to allow an increase in both indicators with no physically attainable bifurcation.

Early detection of failure of a set of predictions is important for improving model predictions and the decisions based on them. Scafetta & Mazzarella forderten 2015, dass die natürliche Variabilität in den Modellen nachgebessert wird: Anstatt der vormals befürchteten stetigen Eisschmelze, gehen Forscher nun von einer starken Beeinflussung durch die natürliche Klimavariabilität aus.

We show that these methods would have detected a range shift in northern pintail 20 years before it was actually discovered, and are increasingly giving more weight to those climate models that forecast a September ice-free Arctic by 2055. Hierzu eine Pressemitteilung der University of Colorado at Boulder von 2015 (via Science Daily): Arctic sea ice extent plunged precipitously from 2001 to 2007, then barely budged between 20.

Sie hatten viel zu lange angenommen, dass der Rückgang des arktischen Meereises irreversibel wäre. New research by Till Wagner and Ian Eisenman, scientists at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, resolves a long-running debate over irreversible Arctic sea ice loss.

Ever since the striking record minimum Arctic sea ice extent in 2007, the ominous scenario of a sea ice tipping point has been a fixture in the public debate surrounding man-made climate change and a contingency for which Arctic-bordering countries have prepared.

Our physical models lack important details on the processes controlling ice formation and melting, thus ONR is conducting a series of experimental efforts on sea ice, open water processes, acoustics, and circulation.”During the past several years, scientists using global climate models (GCMs) that are more complex than process models found sea ice loss in response to rising greenhouse gases in their computer simulations is actually reversible when greenhouse levels are reduced.

“It wasn’t clear whether the simpler process models were missing an essential element, or whether GCMs were getting something wrong,” said Wagner, the lead author of the study.Modelle, die ein schnelles Verschwinden des Arktiseises postulieren, sind offenbar wenig vertrauenswürdig. Bei den Prognostikern ist zwischenzeitlich eine goße Diskussion ausgebrochen. Even in a warming world, researchers should expect such unusual periods of no change — and rapid change — at the world’s northern reaches, according to a new paper.“Human-caused global warming is melting Arctic sea ice over the long term, but the Arctic is a variable place, said Jennifer Kay, a fellow of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder and co-author of the new analysis out today in Nature Climate Change.Erst ab 2055 könnte es soweit sein, falls die Erderwärmung ungebremst fortschreiten sollte. Wissenschaftler nehmen heute an, dass sich das Meereis im arktischen Atlantik in den nächsten zehn Jahren wieder vergrößern wird, wie Eos 2016 unter Hinweis auf Yeager et al. Natural ups and downs of temperature, wind and other factors mean that even as sea ice slowly melts, random weather can mask or enhance the long-term trend.For space constraints, the focus was only on September sea ice coverage as this is the month with the strongest observed trends.The discussion can be summarized as follows:- On decadal time scales, internal climate variability can cause a substantial acceleration or temporary recovery of the sea ice cover that renders the evaluation of individual model simulations based on their short-term trends impossible.- On longer time scales, internal variability causes a substantial spread in possible 30-year long trends supporting for the production of large model ensembles.“One relates to how heat moves from the tropics to the poles and the other is associated with the seasonal cycle.

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